At a glance, it’s easy to assume 2013 has been a horrible year for short sellers. The U.S. equity market has set a blistering pace that sent the major averages to record nominal highs, and many high-profile short cases have been torn apart.
Bill Ackman’s Herbalife campaign has beenwell-documented, with the stock having moved drastically against the Pershing Square chief’s short position all year, but short sellers have also been driven out of names like Best Buy, which is up 250%.
But even in a rough year for bears, with nary a 10% pullback in the broader market to provide a salve for those betting against the sustained rally, short sellers have notched their share of victories. The data analysts at Markit took a look at short interest data to pick out the best shorts of 2013, a group that include mining companies, event-sensitive pharmaceutical players and another trade Ackman found himself on the wrong end of.
To identify the hottest short trades, Markit considered the performance of companies that hit a new annual short interest peak, with a minimum of 3% of shares outstanding being sold short. Of the 20 stocks they picked out, pharmaceutical shares were the best represented with four companies on the list.
The lowlight was Ariad Pharmaceuticals, which plunged in October after the FDA put a partial hold on a leukemia drug. Traders who sold short in late August, when short interest hit a fresh annual high, witnessed a 76% plunge in the Ariad Pharmaceuticals share price, according to Markit analyst Andrew Laird.
In the precious metals sector, a notable laggard all year, shorts made lucrative bets against the share price of Allied Nevada Gold ANV +4.56%. But most traders were late to the party as short interest did not hit fresh highs until April, when the stock had already been cut by more than a third. Shares are down nearly 90% for the year alongside a sharp decline that has sent the price of gold from over $1,600 an ounce to the $1,200 range.
JC Penney has seen its short interest fluctuate this year, particularly around the time Ackman unsuccessfully pushed for the ouster of interim CEO Mike Ullman, resigned from the board and sold his sizable stake in the retailer. While short interest fell during the fall it has subsequently picked up and news of an SEC inquiry into the company’s September equity offering has kept pressure on the stock. From the average price at the 11 peaks in short interest this year to early December the traders betting against JC Penney have made about 13%. For the year to date, shares of the retailer have tumbled almost 57%.
In Angie’s List patience has paid off on the short side. Shorts have targeted the shares since its November 2011 IPO, but the trade was mostly a loser until 2013, Laird notes. But short interest has hit a weekly high 11 times this year and the stock is down some 47% since mid-August. In September, Consumer Reports raised questions about just how much trust people can put in Angie’s List recommendations. (See “Why Consumer Reports Says You Can’t Trust Angie’s List.”)
Another stock worth mentioning that didn’t make Markit’s list is Caterpillar CAT +0.69%. James Chanos said in July his hedge fund Kynikos Associates was short the heavy equipment maker on the belief that a global commodities supercycle was running out of gas. With a greater chunk of Caterpillar tied to mining after the 2011 acquisition of Bucyrus, Chanos predicted weakness out of China would limit the stock. Shares of Caterpillar are essentially flat since Chanos made his case at an investment conference, but the stock is down 3.5% for the year and has drastically trailed the broader market as one of only two Dow components (with IBM) enduring a losing year.
No hay comentarios.:
Publicar un comentario