At the start of the month I discussed five key features of
the iPad Mini launch that would define Tim Cook’s Apple and illustrate
the strategic direction that Apple would be taking in 2013 and beyond
under his leadership. Now the details are confirmed, let’s revisit them.
Before I do, a quick thought. There’s no doubt in my mind that
short-term the iPad Mini is going to be a hit, sell by the millions, and
be the must have gadget for Christmas 2012. But selling lots of devices
is the result of a strategy, not a strategy itself. Apple’s long-term
health is just as important as the sales figures on the new hardware.
Historically the decisions and choices that eventually
damaged weakened companies like Nokia, Kodak, and Sony all took place
while sales were good and the corporate outlook was optimistic. Will
Apple continue to grow and innovate? That’s what I want to look, rather
than quantifying the upcoming success of the iPad Mini.
Allure: Tim Cook Doesn’t Have A Distortion Field.
How well did Apple sell the iPad Mini to the world? To be honest not
very well. They trash talked the competition and specifically attacked
the Nexus 7. They talked about the delight and wonder of retina screens
before arguing you didn’t need one on the new iPad. And they updated
March’s iPad for a new model, breaking an unspoken covenant that the
iPad would be updated once per year.
More importantly, everyone noticed all this and wrote about it in
relatively scathing terms. The mystique and power that made you want an
Apple device simply because the man on stage told you… that’s all gone.
Aggression: Pricing Is Set To Remain High
Apple has traditionally priced their hardware at a higher point than
the competition, but they always balanced this out by providing better
hardware, more capability, and a better return on investment. The
pricing of the first iPad was not a case of “how much is that tablet”
but “how cheap!”
The situation is now reversed with the iPad Mini. It’s a smaller
resolution screen, with less memory, and a larger physical footprint
than the Nexus 7. Yes it has a stronger ecosystem but is that enough to
justify almost double the price of the competition? Part of the
presentation should have been to justify this luxury positioning, and I
don’t think ‘thin’ is a long term strategy you can count on.
Acknowledgment: What about Maps?
Did I blink and miss the explanation of the issues around maps in iOS
6? I was hoping Tim Cook would have taken clear leadership of this
issue. Instead it was airbrushed away as if it never mentioned – apart
from everyone on Twitter pointing out that the iPad Mini and the Nexus 7
side-by-side comparisons failed to compare mapping, which is probably
one of the key smartphone battlegrounds of the next few years.
Agility: There Was No Oprah Moment Of Shipping
The iPad Mini will reach stores at the start of November. Unless
you’re looking for a 3G enabled version, in which case you have another
month to wait. The same goes for the other hardware on show. Compared to
a few years ago, that’s a fast turnaround, but the aura of announce and
then ship? That’s gone.
Affection: Is The Focus On Flair Or Figure
Tim Cook’s strength was in logistics. If you wanted a spreadsheet, he
was the man to go to in Apple. Line up all of Apple’s hardware in
separate columns on a spreadsheet and there was an obvious gap for a
low-end iPad… so Cook has filled that. Rather than squeeze the iPad 2
down in price and retaining the classic form factor, the decision was
made to go for a smaller screened device.
Why? My guess is that there’s another mythical spreadsheet marked
‘competition and how we compare to them’ and there is a gap in the 7″
‘tweener’ market. Which has been promptly filled.
That’s a great way to maximise sales and income, and the bottom line
from those efforts will be amazing, I’m not disputing that. What it
doesn’t show is any flair or fashion. This is a route that Apple has
already walked down, and Tim Cook is taking them down it once more to
earn some more money.
But every time you walk down the same road, part of the competition
catches up and some of them pull further ahead. You cannot rely on it
indefinitely. Apple has announced that they are doing “the same again,
but thinner” once more. Where is the dynamic experimentation that
creates brand new product lines like the iPad and the iPhone?
Short Term Victory Is Still Guaranteed, But The Future Will Be Difficult
You always believed that Steve Jobs could do something special when
he led Apple. I saw nothing at this week’s events that led me to believe
that Tim Cook has that spark to lead Apple onwards to something truly
new and different.
Forming, storming, norming, performing, dorming - Bruce Tuckman’s group development model is
apt here. Right now Apple is performing, but is entering the dorming
stage, the stage where complacency creeps up on a group and they are
more concerned about preserving their position and investments. I want
Apple to break out of that stage and return and do some storming, but to
do that they need to believe that change is needed.
Apple will continue to sell hardware by the metric tonne, the company
will continue to be one of the biggest companies in the world, but I
can’t see any impetus for change. It’s the same product line-up,
slightly better, still with high margins, and trusting people to buy
into the Apple story, shouting about short-term success…
If it were any other company, that would be enough, but Apple is not
‘any other company’, it’s Apple. It’s meant to be forward thinking, to
be magical, to think different, to just work.
Right now, it’s doing none of that.
www.forbes.com
No hay comentarios.:
Publicar un comentario