Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta G 20. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta G 20. Mostrar todas las entradas

2014/02/24

G20 acuerda acelerar el crecimiento de la economía global en un 2% los próximos cinco años

Para lograr el objetivo, se estableció el "Plan de Acción de Brisbane" que incluirá acciones concretas en creación de empleo, incremento de inversión, mejoras en políticas comerciales y promoción de la competencia, entre otras.


Los ministros de Finanzas y los gobernadores de los bancos centrales de los países del G20, que se encuentran reunidos por estos días en Sídney, acordaron acelerar el crecimiento de la economía global en un 2% durante el próximo lustro. 

"A pesar de que la economía mundial está lejos de lograr un fuerte crecimiento sostenible y equilibrado, vamos a desarrollar políticas ambiciosas pero realistas con el objetivo de mejorar el PIB colectivo en más de un 2%, una trayectoria que implica implementar las políticas actuales durante los próximos 5 años", señala el comunicado final de la cita. 

Para lograr este objetivo, el G20 ha establecido el "Plan de Acción de Brisbane", que incluirá acciones concretas en los países que conforman el G20 en materia de creación de empleo, incremento de la inversión, mejoras en las políticas comerciales y promoción de la competencia, entre otras políticas macroeconómicas. 

El tesorero australiano, Joe Hockey, anfitrión de la cita, calificó como "ambicioso" pero "tangible" el acuerdo alcanzado entre los países que representan al 85% de la economía mundial. 

"Las políticas podrían repartir más de US$ 2.000 millones (1,45 billones de euros) en actividades económicas reales y decenas de millones de nuevos puestos de trabajo", aseguró Hockey al indicar que "las reformas estructurales son duras, pero no hay otra opción". 

Para la cita de jefes de Estado y primeros ministros, que tendrá lugar en la ciudad Brisbane el próximo mes de noviembre, cada país deberá llevar un detallado plan de crecimiento económico. 

"Hay un reconocimiento adecuado de que un mayor movimiento en la política monetaria en los países desarrollados tendrá un impacto (positivo) en las economías emergentes", dijo el tesorero australiano. 

El secretario general del Tesoro Público español, Iñigo Fernández de Mesa, declaró que este acuerdo conjunto se trata "de una indicación para el crecimiento del 2% en cinco años sobre lo que se está creciendo ahora, es a más". 

El alto cargo español agregó que lo importante "son las reformas para alcanzar ese objetivo y la adopción de medidas". 

Esta proyección está en línea con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), que recientemente consideró que la implementación de una serie de reformas agresivas podría aumentar el crecimiento mundial en un 0,5% anual. 

El G20 indicó que si bien la reducción de estímulos monetarios pueden "conducir a una excesiva volatilidad" y dañar el crecimiento, su "respuesta principal será fortalecer y perfeccionar los marcos de política estructural y financiera macroeconómicas internas". 

"Algunas economías tendrán que reconstruir sus mecanismos reguladores fiscales que han sido erosionados en el espacio político", cita el comunicado final. 

Además, subraya que todos los bancos centrales "mantienen el compromiso de que los ajustes de la política monetaria seguirán siendo calibrados de manera cuidadosa y comunicados claramente, en un contexto de intercambio permanente de información al ser conscientes de los impactos en la economía mundial". 

Entre los participantes a la cita en Sídney del G20 también se cuenta a la directora gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, y el presidente del Banco Mundial, Jim Yong Kim, además del ministro de Economía de España, Luis de Guindos, aunque faltan, entre otros, los titulares de México y Brasil.

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2013/09/07

Emergentes dominan conversaciones sobre economía en G-20

Presidentes de los BRICS en el G20 de San Petersburgo
Las potencias emergentes y desarrolladas del G-20 se esforzaron por encontrar terreno común el jueves ante la agitación desatada por la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos reduzca una fuerte inyección de dólares en la economía mundial.

El Grupo de los 20, que se unió en respuesta a la crisis financiera global del 2009, ahora enfrenta una aceleración de la economía de Estados Unidos, una Europa estancada y un revés en economías en desarrollo a partir de una posible reducción de estímulos monetarios por parte de la Reserva Federal.

“Nuestra principal tarea es devolver a la economía global a un crecimiento sostenido y equilibrado. Esta tarea desafortunadamente no ha sido resuelta”, dijo el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, a líderes mundiales en su encuentro anual en San Petersburgo.
Los líderes firmaron una iniciativa de empleo y crecimiento, así como también medidas para combatir la evasión tributaria internacional y endurecer la regulación financiera. Pero persistían las preocupaciones de que una renovada turbulencia en el mercado pueda afectar con mayor dureza a economías en desarrollo.

“Los riesgos sistémicos, las condiciones para una aguda recaída en la crisis, persisten”, aseguró Putin.

Putin evitó referirse en forma explícita a los riesgos que se derivan de la política monetaria estadounidense, pero el mensaje de los líderes del grupo BRICS de mercados emergentes, que se reunieron más temprano, fue claramente dirigido a Washington.
Los BRICS anunciaron que comprometerán 100.000 millones de dólares a un fondo cambiario, aunque tomará un tiempo establecer el mecanismo.

“La eventual normalización de políticas monetarias necesita ser efectiva y cuidadosamente calibrada y claramente comunicada”, dijeron Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica (BRICS) en un comunicado conjunto.

Economías vulnerables, incluyendo a India, un miembro del G-20, tendrán que tomar medidas para reequilibrar sus propias economías, dijeron China y Rusia, que descartaron incurrir en rescates para países que han encontrado problemas.

Washington, en tanto, afirmó que las economías emergentes tendrán que hacer su tarea en la medida en que retire su política monetaria expansiva.

DERRAMES
El presidente de la Fed, Ben Bernanke, provocó una ola de ventas de monedas, acciones y bonos de mercados emergentes y compras de dólares cuando planteó la posibilidad en mayo de reducir el enorme programa de compras de bonos de la Reserva Federal de 85.000 millones de dólares mensuales.

Este mes podría tener lugar el primer paso en esa dirección, un movimiento ampliamente justificado por el estado de la economía estadounidense, pero con implicancias potencialmente enormes para el sistema financiero global y que ha llegado a depender de un suministro amplio y barato de dólares.

Economías avanzadas lideradas por Estados Unidos impulsarán el crecimiento global, mientras que los países emergentes están en riesgo de desacelerarse debido a un endurecimiento de la política monetaria estadounidense, advirtió el Fondo Monetario Internacional en un documento divulgado antes de la cumbre.

China llamó a Washington a ser “consciente de los efectos de derrame y a trabajar para contribuir a la estabilidad de los mercados financieros globales y la recuperación sostenida de la economía global”.

La política monetaria expansiva debe ser ajustada paso a paso sin provocar trastornos económicos, dijo la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, en el marco de la cumbre del G-20 después de que el Banco Central Europeo mantuvo la política monetaria sin cambios el jueves.

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El FMI apunta que aún falta mucho por hacer a pesar de los progresos de la economía mundial

Las acciones coordinadas de los países del G20 han contribuido a estabilizar la economía y el sistema financiero, aunque todavía falta mucho trabajo por hacer, indicó la directora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Christine Lagarde, a la conclusión de la cumbre de las principales economías mundiales en San Petersburgo.
"Las acciones coordinadas han hecho mucho por la estabilización de la economía mundial y del sistema financiero, aunque, tal como también reconocen los líderes del G20, aún queda mucho por hacer", indicó Lagarde.

En este sentido, la responsable de la institución internacional advirtió de que el crecimiento de la economía global todavía es débil, mientras persiste el riesgo de volatilidad e inestabilidad en los mercados.

De este modo, Lagarde advirtió de que, justo cuando algunas economías avanzadas comienzan a ganar fuerza en su recuperación, varias economías emergentes están ralentizándose.

Así, la exministra francesa de Finanzas subrayó la importancia de que la política monetaria continúe apoyando allí donde sea apropiado, al mismo tiempo que defendió la necesidad de que las medidas monetarias no convencionales se retiren "de manera ordenada y se comuniquen de forma clara".


Leer más:  Economía/G20.- El FMI apunta que aún falta mucho por hacer a pesar de los progresos de la economía mundial  http://www.finanzas.com/noticias/economia/20130906/economia-apunta-falta-mucho-2465949.html#VwZ1RXAvaaaEV4eg
Consigue Links a tus Contenidos en  http://www.intentshare.com

2013/09/06

Obama Admits Public Opposition To Syria Strike (Transcript)

U.S. President Obama speaks to the media during a news conference at the G20 summit in St.PetersburgWith public opinion and Congressional momentum against him, President Obama attempted to recalibrate expectations and redouble his sales effort for targeted military strikes, during a press conference Friday in Russia after a meeting of the G-20.
He made clear that his priority was winning support for strikes from a majority in Congress, even if a majority of the American people do not back the effort. “It’s conceivable that at the end of the day, I don’t persuade a majority of the American people that it’s the right thing to do. And then each member of Congress is gonna have to decide,” Obama said, noting that he was aware of recent polls showing broad opposition to strikes. “Ultimately, you listen to your constituents, but you’ve also got to make some decisions about what you believe is right for America.”
On Tuesday, Obama plans to take his case directly to the American people, with an address from the White House. “Our polling operations are pretty good, you know, I tend to have a pretty good sense of what current popular opinion is,” he said. “ For the American people who have been through over a decade of war now with enormous sacrifice—and blood and treasure—any hint of further military entanglements in the Middle East are going to be viewed with suspicion.”
The last week has not been a good one for Obama in Congress, where members have made increasingly public pronouncements about their concerns with the national support for the strikes. Several news organization counts of the votes in the House show that a majority of members are either against the strikes, or leaning against the strikes. Obama said he would make his case publicly but made clear that his focus was on winning majority support in Congress. “I understand the skepticism. I think it is very important, therefore, for us to work through, systematically, making the case to every senator and every member of Congress,” he said.
He compared the current debate in the U.S. to the debate during World War II over whether to support Britain during the bombing of London, the debate over whether to intervene in Kosovo in 1999 and the debate over whether to stop the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. “Imagine if Rwanda was going on right now. And we asked: Should we intervene in Rwanda? I think it’s fair to say that it probably wouldn’t poll real well,” the President said.
Obama has made the case for bombing Syria on humanitarian grounds, noting repeatedly that hundreds of children were killed by chemical weapons attacks. But White House officials have also made clear that Obama does not embrace a humanitarian mission in Syria with the goal of saving lives. The goal is more narrow: To prevent the loss of life by chemical attack. Already more than 110,000 people, many of them civilians, have been killed in the Syrian civil war, international observers say. Only a small fraction have died from chemical attacks.
A full transcript of the Obama remarks follows below.
OBAMA: (OFF-MIKE) thank President Putin and the people of St. Petersburg, and the people of Russia, for holding this G-20.
This city has a long and storied history, including its historic resistance and extraordinary sacrifices during the Second World War. So I want to take this opportunity to salute the people of St. Petersburg and express our gratitude for their outstanding hospitality.
This summit marks another milestone in the world’s recovery from the financial crisis that erupted five years ago this month. Instead of the looming threat of another financial meltdown, we’re focused for the first time in many years on building upon the gains that we’ve made. For the first time in three years, instead of an urgent discussion to address the European financial crisis, we see a Europe that has emerged from recession.
Moreover, the United States is a source of strength in the global economy. Our manufacturing sector is rebounding, new rules have strengthened our banks and reduced the chance of another crisis. We’re reducing our addiction to foreign oil and producing more clean energy. And as we learned today, over the past three-and-a-half years, our businesses have created 7.5 million new jobs, a pace of more than 2 million jobs each year. We’ve put more people back to work, but we’ve also cleared away the rubble of crisis and laid the foundation for stronger and more durable economic growth.
We’re also making progress in putting our fiscal house in order. Our deficits are falling at the fastest rate in 60 years. And as Congress takes up important decisions in the coming month, I’m going to keep making the case for the smart investments and fiscal responsibility that keeps our economy growing, creates jobs, and keeps the U.S. competitive.
OBAMA: That includes making sure we don’t risk a U.S. default over paying bills we’ve already racked up. I’m determined that the world has confidence in the full faith and credit of the United States.
As the world’s largest economy, our recovery is helping to drive global growth, and in the emerging markets in particular there’s a recognition that a strong U.S. economy is good for their economies, too. Yet we came to St. Petersburg mindful of the challenges that remain.
As it emerges from recession, Europe has an opportunity to focus on boosting demand and reducing unemployment; as well as making some of the structural changes that can increase long-term growth. Growth in emerging economies has slowed. So, we need to make sure that we are working with them in managing this process. And I’m pleased that over the past two days we reached a consensus on how to proceed.
We agreed that our focus needs to be on creating jobs and growth that put people back to work. We agreed on ways to encourage the investments in infrastructure that keep economies competitive. Nations agreed to continue to pursue financial reforms and to address tax evasion and tax avoidance which undermines budgets and unfairly shifts the tax burden to other taxpayers.
We’re moving ahead with our development agenda with a focus on issues like food security and combating corruption, and I’m very pleased that the G-20 nations agreed to make faster progress on phasing down certain greenhouse gases a priority. That’s an important step in our fight against climate change.
During my trip, we also continued our efforts to advance two key trade initiatives: The transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. And I believe that if we continue to move forward on all the fronts that I’ve described, we can keep the global economy growing and keep creating jobs for our people.
Of course, even as we focused on our shared prosperity — and although the primary task of the G-20 is to focus on our joint efforts to boost the global economy — we did also discuss a grave threat to our shared security: And that’s the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons. And what I’ve been emphasizing and will continue to stress is that the Assad regime’s brazen use of chemical weapons isn’t just a Syrian tragedy, it’s a threat to global peace and security.
Syria’s escalating use of chemical weapons threatens its neighbors, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Israel. It threatens to further destabilize the Middle East. It increases the risk that these weapons will fall into the hands of terrorist groups. But more broadly, it threatens to unravel the international norm against chemical weapons embraced by 189 nations,, and those nations represent 98 percent of the world’s people.
Failing to respond to this breach of this international norm would send a signal to rogue nations, authoritarian regimes and terrorist organizations, that they can develop and use weapons of mass destruction and not pay a consequence. And that’s not the world that we want to live in. This is why nations around the world have condemned Syria for this attack, and called for action. I’ve been encouraged by discussions with my fellow leaders this week. There is a growing recognition that the world cannot stand idly by. Here in St. Petersburg leaders from Europe, Asia and the Middle East have come together to say that the international norm of the use against chemical weapons must be upheld, and that the Assad regime used these weapons on its own people, and that, as a consequence, there needs to be a strong response.
The Arab League foreign ministers have said the Assad regime’s responsible and called for deterrent and necessary measures against the culprits of this crime. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation — its general secretariat has called the attack a blatant affront to all religious and moral values and a deliberate disregard of international laws and norms, which requires a decisive action.
So, in the coming days I’ll continue to consult with my fellow leaders around the world, and I will continue to consult with Congress. And I will make the best case that I can to the American people, as well as to the international community, for taking necessary and appropriate action. And I intend to address the American people from the White House on Tuesday.
OBAMA: The kind of world we live in, and our ability to deter this kind of outrageous behavior, is going to depend on the decisions that we make in the days ahead.
And I’m confident that if we deliberate carefully and we choose wisely and embrace our responsibilities, we can meet the challenges of this moment as well as those in the days ahead.
So, with that, let me take some questions. I’ve got my handy list, and I will start with Julie Pace (ph) from AP.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.
You mentioned the number of countries that have condemned the use of chemical weapons, but your advisers also say you’re leaving this summit with a strong number of countries backing your call for military action.
President Putin just a short time ago indicated it may only be a handful of countries, including France, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Can you tell us publicly what countries are backing your call for military action? And did you change any minds here? President Putin also mentioned your meeting with him earlier today. Can you tell us how that came about? And did you discuss both Syria and Edward Snowden? thank you.
OBAMA: The — I believe that there will be a statement issued later this evening, although hopefully in time for you guys to file back home, that indicates some of the additional countries that are making public statements.
Last night we had a good discussion. And I want to give President Putin credit that he facilitated I think a full airing of views on the issue.
And here’s how I would describe it, without giving the details or betraying the confidence of those who were speaking within the confines of the dinner.
It was unanimous that chemical weapons were used, a unanimous conclusion that chemical weapons were used in Syria. There was a unanimous view that the norm against using chemical weapons has to be maintained. That these weapons were banned for a reason and that the international community has to take those norms seriously. I would say that the majority of the room is comfortable with our conclusion that Assad, the Assad government, was responsible for their use. Obviously, this is disputed by President Putin, but if you polled the leaders last night, I’m confident that you’d get a majority who said it is most likely, we are pretty confident, that the Assad regime used it.
Where there is a division has to do with the United Nations. You know, there are number a of countries that just as a matter of principle believe that if military action is to be taken, it needs to go through the U.N. Security Council.
There are others, and I put myself in this camp, as somebody who is a strong supporter of the United Nations, who very much appreciates the courage of the investigators who have gone in and looks forward to seeing the U.N. report because I think we should try to get more information, not less, in this situation.
It is my view, and a view that was shared by a number of people in the room, that given Security Council paralysis on this issue, if we are serious about upholding a ban on chemical weapons use, then an international response is required and that will not come through Security Council action.
And that’s where I think the division comes from. And I respect those who are concerned about setting precedents of action outside of a U.N. Security Council resolution. I would greatly prefer working through multilateral channels and through the United Nations to get this done.
But ultimately what I believe in even more deeply, because I think that the security of the world and my particular task looking out for the national security of the United States requires that when there’s a breach this brazen of a norm this important and the international community is paralyzed and frozen and doesn’t act, then that norm begins to unravel.
And if that norm unravels, then other norms and prohibitions start unraveling. And that makes for a more dangerous world. And that, then, requires even more difficult choices and more difficult responses in the future.
You know, over 1,400 people were gassed. Over 400 of them were children. This is not something we’ve fabricated. This is not something that we are looking — are using as an excuse for military action.
As I said last night, I was elected to end wars, not start them. I’ve spent the last four and a half years doing everything I can to reduce our reliance on military power as a means of meeting our international obligations and protecting the American people.
But what I also know is, is that there are times where we have to make hard choices if we’re gonna stand up for the things that we care about. And I believe that this is one of those times. And if we end up using the U.N. Security Council not as a means of enforcing international norms and international law but, rather, as a barrier to acting on behalf of international norms and international law, then I think people rightly are going to be pretty skeptical about the system and whether it can work to protect those children that we saw on those videos.
And sometimes the further we get from the horrors of that, the easier it is to rationalize not making tough choices. And I understand that.
This is not convenient. This is not something that I think a lot of folks around the world, you know, find an appetizing set of choices.
But the question is, do these norms mean something? And if we’re not acting, what does that say? You know, if we’re just issuing another statement of condemnation or passing resolutions saying “wasn’t that terrible?”
You know, if people who, you know, decry international inaction in Rwanda and, you know, say how terrible it is that there are these human rights violations that take place around the world, then why aren’t we doing something about it?
And they always look to the United States. Why isn’t the United States doing something about this? The most powerful nation on Earth. Why are you allowing these terrible things to happen?
And then if the international community turns around when we’re saying it’s time to take some responsibility and says, “Well, hold on a second, we’re not sure.”
That erodes our ability to maintain the kind of norms that we’re looking at.
Now, I know that was a lengthy answer, and you had a second part of your question. The conversation I had with President Putin was on the margins of the — of the plenary session. And, you know, it was a candid and constructive conversation, which characterizes my relationship with him.
I know, as I’ve said before, everybody’s always trying to look for body language and all that, but the truth of the matter is, is that my interactions with him tend to be very straightforward.
We discussed Syria, and that was primarily the topic of conversation. Mr. Snowden did not come up beyond me saying that — re-emphasizing that where we have common interests, I think it’s important for the two of us to work together.
OBAMA: And on Syria, I said, listen, I don’t expect us to agree on this issue of chemical weapons use. Although it is possible that after the U.N. inspectors’ report, it may be more difficult for Mr. Putin to maintain his current position about the evidence.
But what I did say is that we both agree that the underlying conflict can only be resolved through a political transition as envisioned by the Geneva I and Geneva II process. And so, we need to move forward together, even if the U.S. and Russia and other countries disagree on this specific issue of how to respond to chemical weapons use, it remains important for us to work together to try to urge all parties in the conflict to try to resolve it.
Because we’ve got 4 million people internally displaced. We’ve got millions of people in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon who are desperate, and the situation’s only getting worse. And that’s not in anybody’s interests. It’s not in America’s interest. It’s not in Russia’s interest. It’s not in the interests of the people in the region, and obviously it’s not in the interest of Syrians who have seen their lives completely disrupted and their country shattered.
OBAMA: So, that is going to continue to be a project of ours. And that does speak to, you know, an issue that has been raised back home around this whole issue. You’ve heard some people say, well, you know, we think if you’re going to do something, you got to do something big, and maybe this isn’t big enough or maybe it’s too late or, you know, other responses like that.
You know, and what I’ve tried to explain is, look, we may not solve the whole problem, but this particular problem of using chemical weapons on children, this one we might have an impact on and that’s worth acting on. That’s important to us. And what I’ve also said is, is that as far as the underlying conflict’s concerned, unless the international community is willing to put massive numbers of troops on the ground — and I know nobody’s signing up for that — we’re not going to get a long-term military solution for the country.
And that is something that can only come about I think if, as different as our perspectives may be, myself, Mr. Putin, and others, are willing to set aside those differences and put some pressure on the parties on the ground.
OK? Brianna?
QUESTION: On the resolution to authorize the use of force, one of the big challenges right now isn’t just Republicans, but it’s from some of your loyal Democrats. It seems that the more they hear from classified briefings that the less likely they are to support you.
If the full Congress doesn’t pass this, will you go ahead with the strike?
And also, Senator Susan Collins, one of the few Republicans who breaks with her party to give you support at times, she says, “What if we execute this strike and then Assad decides to use chemical weapons again, do we strike again?”
And many Democrats are asking that as well. How do you answer her question?
OBAMA: Well, first of all, in terms of the votes and the process in Congress, I knew this was going to be a heavy lift. I said that on Saturday when I said we’re going to take it to Congress. You know, our polling operations are pretty good, you know, I tend to have a pretty good sense of what current popular opinion is. And for the American people who have been through over a decade of war now with enormous sacrifice — and blood and treasure — any hint of further military entanglements in the Middle East are going to be viewed with suspicion, and that suspicion will probably be even stronger in my party than in the Republican party. You know, since a lot of the people who supported me remember that I opposed the war in Iraq.
And what’s also true, is that experience with the war in Iraq colors how people view this situation, not just back home in America, but also here in Europe and around the world. You know, that’s the prism through which a lot of people are analyzing the situation.
OBAMA: So, I understand the skepticism. I think it is very important, therefore, for us to work through, systematically, making the case to every senator and every member of Congress. And that’s what we’re doing.
I dispute a little bit, Brianna (ph), the notion that people come out of classified briefings and they’re less in favor of it. I think that when they go through the classified briefings, they feel pretty confident that, in fact, chemical weapons were used and that the Assad regime used them.
Where you will see resistance is people being worried about a slippery slope and how effective a limited action might be. And our response, based on my discussions with our military, is that we can have a response that is limited, that is proportional, that when I say limited, it’s both in time and in scope, but that is meaningful and that degrades Assad’s capacity to deliver chemical weapons, not just this time, but also in the future, and serves as a strong deterrent.
Now, is it possible that Assad doubles down in the face of our action and uses chemical weapons more widely? I suppose anything’s possible, but it wouldn’t be wise. I think, at that point, mobilizing the international community would be easier, not harder. I think it would be pretty hard for the U.N. Security Council at that point to continue to resist the requirement for action, and we would gladly join with an international coalition to make sure that it stops.
So, you know, one of the biggest concerns of the American people, you know, certain members of Congress may have different concerns, there may be certain members of Congress who say we’ve got to do even more or claim to have previously criticized me for not hitting Assad and now are saying they’re going to vote no. And you’ll have to ask them exactly how they square that circle.
But for the American people at least, the concern really has to do with understanding that what we’re describing here would be limited and proportionate and designed to address this problem of chemical weapons use and upholding a norm that helps keep all of us safe. And — and that is going to be the case that I try to make, not just to Congress, but to the American people over the coming days. OK?
QUESTION: Just a follow-up (OFF-MIKE) full congressional approval (OFF-MIKE) Senate (OFF-MIKE) and the House does not (OFF- MIKE) would you go ahead with the strike?
OBAMA: You know, Brianna (ph), I think it would be a mistake for me to jump the gun and speculate, because right now I’m working to get as much support as possible out of Congress.
But I’ll repeat something that I said in Sweden when I was asked a similar question. I did not put this before Congress, you know, just as a political ploy or as symbolism. I put it before Congress because I could not honestly claim that the threat posed by Assad’s use of chemical weapons on innocent civilians and women and children posed an imminent, direct threat to the United States. In that situation, obviously, I don’t worry about Congress; we do what we have to do to keep the American people safe.
I could not say that it was immediately directly going to have an impact on our allies. Again, in those situations, I would act right away. This wasn’t even a situation like Libya, where, you know, you’ve got troops rolling towards Benghazi and you have a concern about time, in terms of saving somebody right away.
OBAMA: This was an event that happened. My military assured me that we could act today, tomorrow, a month from now, that we could do so proportionally, but meaningfully. And in that situation, I think it is important for us to have a serious debate in the United States about — about these issues, because these — these are going to be the kinds of national security threats that are most likely to recur over the next 5, 10 years.
There are very few countries who are going to go at us directly. I mean, we have to be vigilant, but our military is unmatched. Those countries that are large and powerful like Russia or China, you know, we have the kind of relationship with them where we’re not getting in conflicts of that sort. At least, you know, over the last several decades, there’s been a recognition that neither country benefits from that kind of great power conflict.
So the kinds of national security threats that we’re going to confront, they’re terrorist threats. They’re failed states. They are the proliferation of deadly weapons. And in those circumstances, you know, a president’s going to have to make a series of decisions about which one of these threats, over the long term, starts making us less and less safe. And where we can work internationally, we should.
There are going to be times, though, where, as is true here, the international community is stuck for a whole variety of political reasons. And if that’s the case, people are going to look to the United States and say, “What are you going to do about it?” And that’s not a responsibility that we always enjoy.
You know, there was a leader of a smaller country who I’ve spoken to over the last several days who said, you know, “I don’t envy you because I’m a small country and nobody expects me to do anything about chemical weapons around the world. They know I have no capacity to do something. And it’s tough because people do look to the United States.”
And the question for the American people is, is that responsibility that we’re willing to bear. And I believe that when you have a limited, proportional strike like this, not Iraq, not putting boots on the ground, not some long, drawn-out affair, not without any risks, but with manageable risks, that we should be willing to bear that responsibility.
Chuck Todd?
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President. Good morning, or good evening. I think it’s still good morning for that call.
OBAMA: By — by tonight, it’ll be tonight.
(LAUGHTER)
When we get back home.
QUESTION: I think we’re all relieved.
OBAMA: Yeah.
QUESTION: I want to follow up on Brianna’s (ph) question because it seems these members of Congress are simply responding to their constituents.
OBAMA: Yeah.
QUESTION: And you’re seeing a lot of these town halls. And it seems as if the more you press your case, the more John Kerry presses the case on your behalf, the more the opposition grows. And maybe it’s — or more the opposition becomes vocal. Why do you think you’ve struggled with that?
And you keep talking about a limited mission. We have a report that indicates you’ve actually asked for an expanded lists of targets in Syria. And one military official told NBC News, it characterized it as “mission creep.” Can you respond to that report?
OBAMA: That report is inaccurate. I’m not going to comment on operational issues that, you know, are sourced by some military official. One thing I’ve got a pretty clear idea about is what I talk with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff about. And what we have consistently talked about is something limited and proportional that would degrade Assad’s (ph) capabilities.
In terms of opposition, Chuck, I expected this. This is hard. And I was under no illusions when I — when I embarked on this path. But I think it’s the right thing to do. I think it’s good for our democracy. We will be more effective if we are unified going forward. And, you know, part of what we knew would be that there would be some politics interjecting…
(CROSSTALK)
OBAMA: No, I said some. But I — what I have also said, is that the American people have gone through a lot when it comes to the military over the last decade or so. And so, I understand that.
OBAMA: And — and when you start talking about chemical weapons and their proliferation, you know, those images of those bodies can sometimes be forgotten pretty quickly. I mean, the cycle moves — moves on.
Frankly, if we weren’t talking about the need for an international response right now, this wouldn’t be what everybody would be asking about. You know, there would be some resolutions that were being proffered in the United Nations and usual hocus-pocus, but the world and the country would have moved on.
So trying to impart a sense of urgency about this, why we can’t have an environment in which, over time, people start thinking we can get away with chemical weapons use, it’s — it’s a hard sell, but it’s something I believe in.
And — and — and as I explained to Brianna (ph), in this context, me making sure that the American people understand it, I think, is important before I take action.
John Karl (ph)?
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.
One of your closest allies in the House said yesterday, “When you’ve got 97 percent of your constituents saying no, it’s kind of hard to say yes.”
Why should members of Congress go against the will of their constituents and support your decision on this?
And I still haven’t heard a direct response to Brianna’s (ph) question. If Congress fails to authorize this, will you go forward with an attack on Syria?
OBAMA: Right. And you’re not getting a direct response.
(LAUGHTER)
Brianna (ph) asked the question very well, you know?
(CROSSTALK)
QUESTION: It’s a pretty basic question.
OBAMA: You know, I was gonna give you a different answer? No. (LAUGHTER)
What I have said, and I will repeat, is that I put this before Congress for a reason. I think we will be more effective and stronger if, in fact, Congress authorizes this action. I’m not going to engage in parlor games now, Jonathan, about whether or not it’s going to pass, when I’m talking substantively to Congress about why this is important and talking to American people about why this is important.
Now, with respect to Congress and how they should respond to constituency concerns, you know, I do consider it part of my job to help make the case and to explain to the American people exactly why I think this is the right thing to do.
And it’s conceivable that at the end of the day, I don’t persuade a majority of the American people that it’s the right thing to do. And then each member of Congress is gonna have to decide, if I think it’s the right thing to do for America’s national security and the world’s national security, then how do I vote?
And you know what? That’s — that’s what you’re supposed to do as a member of Congress. Ultimately, you listen to your constituents, but you’ve also got to make some decisions about what you believe is right for America.
And that’s the same for me as president of the United States. There are a whole bunch of decisions that I make that are unpopular, as you well know.
But I do so because I think they’re the right thing to do, and I trust my constituents want me to offer my best judgment, that’s why they elected mean. that’s why they re-elected me, even after there were some decisions I made that they disagreed with. And I would hope that members of Congress would end up feeling the same way.
The last point I would make. Those kinds of interventions, these kinds of actions are always unpopular, because they seem distant and removed.
And I want to make sure I’m being clear. I’m not — I’m not drawing an analogy to World War II, other than to say when London was getting bombed, it was profoundly unpopular, both in Congress and around the country, to help the British.
It doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right thing to do. It just means people, you know, are struggling with jobs and bills to pay, and they don’t want their sons or daughters put in harm’s way. And these entanglements far away are dangerous and different.
OBAMA: I — you know, to bring the analogy closer to home, you know, the intervention in Kosovo, very unpopular. But ultimately I think it was the right thing to do, and the international community should be glad that it came together to do it.
When people say that it is — it is a terrible stain on all of us that hundreds of thousands of people were slaughtered in Rwanda, well imagine if Rwanda was going on right now. And we asked: Should we intervene in Rwanda? I think it’s fair to say that it probably wouldn’t poll real well.
So, you know, typically when any kind of military action is popular, it’s because either there’s been a very clear, direct threat to us — 9/11. Or an administration uses various hooks to suggest that American interests were directly threatened, like in Panama or Grenada. And sometimes those hooks are more persuasive than others, but typically they’re not put before Congress. And again, we just went through something pretty tough with respect to Iraq.
So, all that I guess provides some context for why you might expect people to be resistant here.
QUESTION: But your deputy national security adviser said that it is not your intention to attack if Congress doesn’t approve it. Is he right?
OBAMA: I don’t think that’s exactly what he said, but I think I’ve answered — I’ve answered the question.
Major Garrett?
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.
Those of us who remember covering your campaign remember you saying that militarily when the United States acts, it’s not just important what it does, but how it goes about doing it. And that even when America sets its course, it’s important to engage the international community and listen to different ideas even as it’s pursuing that action.
I wonder if you leave here and return to Washington, seeing the skepticism there, hearing it here, with any different ideas that might delay military action. For example, some in Congress have suggested giving the Syrian regime 45 days to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, get rid of its chemical stockpiles, do something that would enhance the international sense of accountability for Syria, but delay military action.
Are you, Mr. President, looking at any of these ideas? Or are we on a fast track to military action as soon as Congress renders its judgment one way or the other?
OBAMA: I am listening to all these ideas. And some of them are constructive. And I’m listening to ideas in Congress and I’m listening to ideas here. Look, I want to repeat here. My goal is to maintain the international norm on banning chemical weapons. I want that enforcement to be real. I want it to be serious. I want people to understand that gassing innocent people, you know, delivering chemical weapons against children, is not something we do.
It’s prohibited in active wars between countries. We certainly don’t do it against kids. And we’ve got to stand up for that principle. If there are tools that we can use to ensure that, obviously my preference would be, again, to act internationally in a serious way and to make sure that Mr. Assad gets the message.
I’m not itching for military action. Recall, Major, that I have been criticized for the last couple of years by some of the folks who are now saying they would oppose these strikes, for not striking. And I think that I have a well-deserved reputation for taking very seriously and soberly the idea of military engagement.
So, we will look at these ideas. So far at least, I have not seen ideas presented that, as a practical matter, I think would do the job. But, you know, this is a situation where part of the reason I wanted to foster debate was to make sure that everybody thought about both the ramifications of action and…
(CROSSTALK)
QUESTION: So currently the — the only way to enforce this international norm is militarily and even giving the Assad regime extra time would not achieve your goals.
OBAMA: What I’m saying, Major, is that so far what we’ve seen is a escalation by the Assad regime of chemical weapons use. You’ll recall that several months ago I said — we now say with some confidence that at a small level Assad has used chemical weapons. We not only sent warnings to Assad, but we demarched, meaning, you know, we sent a strong message through countries that have relationships with Assad, that he should not be doing this. And rather than hold the line, we ended up with what we saw on August 21st.
So, this is not as if we haven’t tested the proposition that the guy — or at least generals under his charge — can show restraint when it comes to this stuff. And they’ve got one of the largest stockpiles in the world. But, I want to emphasize, that we continue to consult with our international partners. I’m listening to Congress. I’m not just doing the talking. And if there are good ideas that are worth pursuing, then I’m going to be open to them. I will take, last question, Tangy, AFP.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.
Yesterday night you had two unscheduled bilateral meetings with your Brazilian and Mexican counterparts after they voiced very strong concerns about being allegedly targeted by the NSA. What was your message to them? And do the relations — the constant stream of relations since (ph) this summer, make it harder for you to build confidence with your partners in international forums such as this one?
OBAMA: Good.
I did meet with President Rousseff as well as the President Pena Nieto, of Brazil and Mexico respectively, to discuss the allegations made in the press about the NSA.
I won’t share with you all the details of the conversation. But what I said to them is consistent with what I’ve said publicly — the United States has an intelligence agency. And our intelligence agency’s job is to gather information that’s not available through public sources. If they were available through public sources, then they wouldn’t be an intelligence agency.
In that sense, what we do is similar to what countries around the world do with their intelligence services. But what is true is that, you know, we are bigger, we have greater capabilities, you know, the difference between our capabilities and other countries probably tracks the differences in military capabilities between countries. And what I’ve said is that, because technology’s changing so rapidly, because these capabilities are growing, it is important for us to step back and review what it is that we’re doing. Because just because we can get information doesn’t necessarily always mean that we should. There may be costs and benefits to doing certain things, and we’ve got to weigh those. And I think that traditionally what’s happened, over decades, is the general assumption was, well, you know, whatever you can get, you just kind of pull in and then you kind of sift through later and try to figure out what’s useful.
The nature of technology and the legitimate concerns around privacy and civil liberties means that it’s important for us, on the front end, to say, all right, are we actually going to get useful information here. And if not, or how useful is it, if it’s not that important, should we be more constrained in how we use certain technical capabilities.
OBAMA: Now, just more specifically, then, on Brazil and Mexico, I said that I would look in to the allegations. Part of the problem is we get these through the press and then I’ve got to go back and find out what’s going on, with respect to these particular allegations. I don’t subscribe to all of these newspapers — although I think the NSA does, now at least.
(LAUGHTER)
And — and then what I assured President Rousseff and President Pena Nieto is that they should take — that I take these allegations very seriously. I understand their concerns. I understand the concerns of the Mexican and Brazilian people; and that we will work with their teams to resolve what is a source of tension.
Now, the last thing I’d say about this, though, is just because there’re tensions doesn’t mean that it overrides all the — incredibly wide-ranging interests that we share with so many of these countries.
And, you know, there’s a reason why I went to Brazil and there’s a reason why I invited President Rousseff to come to the United States. Brazil is an incredibly important country. It is a amazing success story in terms of a transition from authoritarianism to democracy. It is one of the most dynamic economies in the world. And, obviously, for the two largest nations in the hemisphere to have a strong relationship, that can only be good for the people of our two countries as well as the region. Same is true with Mexico, one of our closest friends, allies, and neighbors.
And so, you know, we will work through this particular issue. It does not distract from the larger concerns that we have and the opportunities that we both want to take advantage of.
All right?
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you, St. Petersburg.


Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/06/admitting-public-opposition-on-syria-obama-vows-to-push-forward-transcript/#ixzz2e8Ut2O00

2012/11/04

G20 alerta sobre precipicio fiscal de EE.UU. y teme por la deuda en Europa

G20 alerta sobre precipicio fiscal de EE.UU. y teme por la deuda en Europa

A menos que el fragmentado Congreso estadounidense logre un acuerdo por unos US$ 600.000 millones en recortes de gastos gubernamentales y mayores impuestos, deben entrar en vigor el 1 de enero, amenazando con hundir otra vez la mayor economía del mundo en una recesión.

Ministros de finanzas de las 20 mayores economías del mundo reunidos este fin de semana en México están disparando alarmas sobre el precipicio fiscal en Estados Unidos y los problemas de deuda en Europa, postergando metas de reducción de déficit para estimular el crecimiento económico.

A menos que el fragmentado Congreso estadounidense logre un acuerdo por unos US$ 600.000 millones en recortes de gastos gubernamentales y mayores impuestos, deben entrar en vigor el 1 de enero, amenazando con hundir otra vez la mayor economía del mundo en una recesión y eso tendría consecuencias para el crecimiento global.

Pero con las elecciones presidenciales del martes en Estados Unidos, las soluciones al llamado precipicio fiscal fueron postergadas.

"Los mismos estadounidenses reconocen que eso es un problema", dijo un funcionario del G20 que pidió no ser identificado. "La administración estadounidense dice que no quiere caer en el precipicio fiscal, pero en este momento no nos pueden decir cómo exactamente van a enfrentarlo porque el asunto está congelado por las elecciones".

Recortes tributarios aprobados durante la administración del presidente George W. Bush caducarán en enero, cuando entrarán también en vigor recortes de gastos automáticos diseñados para presionar a los legisladores para lograr un acuerdo presupuestal de largo plazo.

"Lo que continúa siendo crucial es que Estados Unidos no están respetando los compromisos actuales (de reducir sus déficits) y no tiene un plan de consolidación fiscal creíble", dijo un funcionario europeo.

El Congreso estadounidense deberá además aumentar pronto el límite de deuda de la nación para evitar una moratoria.

Un consenso inicial sobre la necesidad de una acción urgente para evitar una nueva depresión fue reemplazado por profundas diferencias sobre asuntos como el gasto para estimular el crecimiento y el ritmo adecuado de medidas de austeridad para controlar los altos niveles de deuda.

José Angel Gurría, secretario general de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos, dijo el sábado que el G20 debe instar a Estados Unidos a evitar despeñarse en el precipicio fiscal, pero añadió que confiaba en que el Congreso lograría algún tipo de compromiso.

"Aún creo que no va a ser aplicado", dijo Gurría en una entrevista antes de la reunión de funcionarios del área financiera del G20, que comienza formalmente el domingo.

Los participantes en la reunión del G20 están preocupados también por los problemas fiscales de Japón y reconocen que compromisos previos asumidos por las naciones desarrolladas de recortar sus déficits fiscales por la mitad para el 2013 y estabilizar la deuda para el 2015 son inviables.

Funcionarios de Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea serán probablemente presionados por sus socios del G20 para implementar los acuerdos de Basilea III sobre regulaciones financieras, la respuesta global a la crisis del 2007-2009.

Pese a la importancia del asunto, una fuente del G20 dijo que Rusia pretende mantener las discusiones sobre regulación financiera a un nivel más técnico cuando asuma la presidencia del grupo de manos de México al final de la reunión el lunes.

La resistencia de España a pedir ayuda financiera hace temer que la crisis de deuda en Europa pueda golpear más al resto del mundo. Madrid está bajo presión para pedir un rescate, en medio de dificultades para manejar su elevada deuda pública y el costo de recapitalizar sus bancos. Fuentes de la eurozona dijeron que España podría buscar ayuda financiera en noviembre.

Una fuente oficial dijo el miércoles a Reuters que el presidente del Gobierno, Mariano Rajoy, no ha descartado pedir el rescate pero ha señalado que no va a apresurarse a menos que las condiciones del mercado se deterioren significativamente.

www.emol.com

 

2012/06/25

La crisis financiera y el G 20 en el contexto de la Gobernanza


OPINIÓN
Por Dr. Antonio Reyes

La crisis financiera marcha muy delante de las decisiones gubernamentales e institucionales que podrían atemperarla y pavimentarle un camino lógico, cierto y creíble para solucionarla. En tanto, se siguen tomando medidas para alimentarla y terminar premiando a sus beneficiarios, identificados los “mercados”. En esta casi perfecta tormenta, continúa la degradación de la calificación de los grandes bancos, tal como ha sucedido a Citigroup (léase Banamex en México), HSBC, Goldman Sachs, entre otros, sin aún asumirse la urgente necesidad de crear un sistema de Gobernanza Global (GG) que establezca las nuevas reglas económicas que garanticen un desempeño financiero acorde a los intereses generales. Tal como ello sucedió al término de la segunda guerra mundial, con la creación del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y el Banco Mundial (BM).

Tres trascendentales hechos han acontecido, en la semana que termina, que marcarán el derrotero de lo que habrá de ser la crisis financiera en la Zona Euro (ZE) y su propagación al nivel de la crisis global. Tales acontecimientos se constituyen por el rescate bancario español, la declaratoria política del G20 (Grupo de los 20) y el préstamo otorgado por sus miembros al FMI.

En efecto, ante la sorpresa de propios y extraños, España ha seguido siendo urgida por las autoridades de la ZE para que soliciten oficialmente el rescate de su sistema bancario y comuniquen de “manera rápida” la estrategia de saneamiento que se aplicará, tal como el Presidente del Eurogrupo, Jean-Claude Juncker pidió a las autoridades de ese país (Última hora El país, 21 de junio). Por lo que se espera que la solicitud se concrete el próximo lunes, estimándose la necesidad de recursos hasta por € 62 mil millones.

La solicitud se dará, finalmente, después de casi dos semanas de haber sido anunciado el rescate bancario; anuncio general que generó múltiples contradicciones en las declaraciones oficiales y sembró de dudas su instrumentación y operación. Las contradicciones pueden ser ejemplificadas desde lo tardío de una solicitud que se dijo haber sido planteada oficialmente entonces por parte del gobierno español, hasta ser el resultado de una imposición de las propias autoridades de la ZE. Tales contradicciones se dieron en el ámbito nacional como en la instancia de las propias autoridades monetarias comunitarias.

El propio gobierno español, al festinar que el rescate se daría de manera directa entre el Fondo Europeo de Estabilidad Financiera (FEEF) y los bancos, sin pasar por el Fondo de Rescate Ordenado Bancario (FROB), alentó la idea de que ello implicaría una deuda bancaria, casi privada, y no soberana. Por ello se argumentó que no habrían de desatarse nuevas obligaciones fiscales y medidas adicionales impuestas a su maltrecho sistema de bienestar social.

La triste realidad ha terminado por enunciar que el gobierno español deberá, muy probablemente, aumentar el IVA y aplicar adicionales reducciones salariales a su burocracia, impuestas por la llamada troika: el Banco Central Europeo, EuroGrupo y el FMI. Pero, sin duda, el elemento más delicado que puede imponer el rescate bancario a España es que dado que se canalizaría por el FROB, se deberá asumir oficialmente un aumento de la deuda soberana por el monto que implique.

El tratamiento técnico de la naturaleza de la deuda generada por el rescate tiene una doble significancia. Por un lado, no siendo el beneficiario del rescate bancario el Estado Español no debe ser asumido como una deuda directa, dado que se constituye en un pasivo cuya naturaleza es contingente. Esto es porque los propios bancos deberían pagarlo y, sólo por excepción y marginalmente, el Gobierno Español tendría que pagar en el largo plazo el pasivo no solventado. De ser considerado el monto del rescate inmediatamente como deuda pública, ésta podría llegar hasta cerca del 90% del PIB, si se consideraran también el monto de los intereses capitalizables, haciendo más costoso y difícil el financiamiento de la misma.

La segunda consideración de ser tratado el rescate bancario como una deuda bancaria y no soberana, sería que Irlanda, Portugal y Grecia podrían apelar a tal criterio contable y así bajar automáticamente el peso de su deuda con respecto al PIB. Tal tratamiento contable y sus repercusiones financieras resultan totalmente válidos y congruentes con otros casos de crisis bancarias, tal como ha sucedido, hasta la fecha en México. Lo importante es que los criterios contables estén claros y sus consecuencias presupuestales trasparentes, tal como ha sido indicado por el FMI desde hace años.

Dentro de esta batahola, el hecho concreto es que la prima de riesgo española se ha exacerbado, manteniéndose por arriba de los 500 puntos base, y habiéndose afectada al alza ya la prima de riesgo de los bonos alemanas. Lo grave de las expectativas es que se espera dentro de un año que la prima de riesgo del país teutón llegue a ser el doble de la actual, lo que llevaría a una situación sombría al resto de los países de la ZE.

Por ello es posible afirmar que se sigue alimentando a la crisis y alentando sus adversas consecuencias. En tanto no se hagan los arreglos institucionales para que opere un verdadero BCE, se tenga un sistema bancario y financiero integrado y se crezca, la impertinente gobernanza de la Unión Europea (UE) seguirá teniendo en un vilo al sistema económico global. Los principales resultados del G20 finalmente parecen ir en la dirección de tal preocupación.

Si bien es cierto que en las declaraciones políticas y públicas de reuniones como la del G 20, siempre hay algo para cada quién, la verdad es que la declaración de Los Cabos contrasta con la visión que se asumió en 2010, cuando se propuso una consolidación fiscal inmediata para sostener la recuperación económica, iniciada con la inyección urgente de gasto público en 2008, y alentar la confianza de los mercados. Hoy se ha reconocido que por haber reducido rápidamente el déficit público se terminó por dañar el crecimiento, generó más desempleo y acrecentó el riesgo y la deuda pública.

Hoy la posición política oficial de todos los miembros del G20 es que “tomarán las acciones necesarias para fortalecer el crecimiento global y restaurar la confianza.” “Las economías avanzadas asegurarán que el paso de la consolidación sea apropiado para apoyar la recuperación, tomando en cuenta las circunstancias específicas de cada país en línea con los compromisos (asumidos) de Toronto dirigidos a lo concerniente acerca de la sostenibilidad fiscal del mediano plazo.”

Esta visión que recobra la originalmente asumida en el G20 de Toronto, que fue trastocada en la Reunión de Londres, constituye un cambio radical de la política fiscal, según las condiciones específicas de cada país. Con ello se subordina el saneamiento de la deuda pública al crecimiento y se buscan, además, apoyar la demanda interna, alentando la inversión en educación e infraestructura para la creación de empleos y mejorar la productividad.

Con esta declaración, es evidente que la posición de los Estados Unidos y Francia prevaleció, alentando esperanzas para que la propuesta del país Galo sobre el tratamiento y financiamiento de la deuda pública de la ZE y su financiamiento sea asumida de manera más lógica, directa y comprometida por el EuroGrupo y el BCE, tal como Mario Draghi pareció ya asumirlo. Por otra parte, la gran perdedora del G20 parece haber sido Alemania y la inflexible Angela Merkel, al vislumbrarse un cambio en el posicionamiento político de España e Italia, para que en la ZE la deuda pública tenga un tratamiento que baje la prima de riesgo y se desvincule el costo inicial del rescate bancario de la deuda soberana. El tiempo dirá si realmente Angela Merkel no sólo ha sido la perdedora del G20, sino también de las elecciones nacionales que habrá de enfrentar, frente a un electorado que parece cada día querer menos Europa y más Alemania.

Quien sin ninguna duda resultó la gran ganadora de la reunión de los Cabos fue Christine Lagarde, Directora-Gerente del FMI, al haber logrado, como dijo, “un compromiso para el multilateralismo.” Como resultado, el total comprometido ha subido a $456,000 millones de dólares, casi doblando nuestra capacidad de préstamo” (IMF Survey online June 19, 2012). La Sra. Lagarde señaló que 37, del total de 188 países miembros del FMI se habían unido a este esfuerzo colectivo, para que los nuevos recursos estuviesen disponibles para la prevención y resolución de crisis y para satisfacer necesidades potenciales financieras para todos los países miembros.

Tales recursos, recibidos por el FMI en calidad de préstamo, se estiman necesarios, dijo la Directora-Gerente, para enfrentar los riesgos globales actuales, urgiendo a que los políticos actuaran juntos para lograr una estabilidad, crecimiento y alentar la creación de empleo. En especial, alentó al G20 para reformar la gobernanza económica global y para trabajar con el FMI e implementar el acuerdo de la Cuota 2010 y la Reforma de Gobernanza en el presente año. En su exposición, la Sra. Lagarde puntualizó que, “estas reformas son cruciales para la legitimación, relevancia y efectividad del FMI” (FMI, Press Release No. 12/232 June 19, 2012)

El préstamo al FMI (Tabla 1) constituye una acción financiera sin precedentes en toda la vida de la institución, pero se explica ante la crisis europea que parece cada día profundizarse más. Es sorprendente máxime que recientemente la cuota de casi todos los países miembros se incrementó, tal como lo hizo México en abril pasado por alrededor de $8,000 millones de dólares, para alcanzar una participación del orden de $14,000 millones de dólares. A esta ampliación de cuota originalmente se opuso EU hasta no saber cuál sería el plan creíble de la ZE para atender sus problemas.

Tal posición de USA también prevaleció para la integración del monto prestado, al no haber aportado cantidad alguna, en tanto México aportó $10,000 millones de dólares, igual cantidad aportada por otros países, tales como Rusia y la India. Sobresale, además, el hecho de que los países fuera de la Unión Europea aportaron más que sus propios miembros, dándose así una clara relación asimétrica en compromiso y riesgo. Por lo que hace a México, destaca el hecho de que el préstamo se hizo sin autorización del Congreso, como por los argumentos abigarrados esgrimidos por el Gobernador del Banco de México (Banxico).

Así, el Dr. Carstens señaló que el préstamo, que tendría una duración de dos años, extensivo a otros dos, es en esencia una “inversión.” Al mismo tiempo, indicó que se seguiría considerando el monto facilitado como una reserva monetaria, dado que sería un depósito en el FMI. Ni legal, ni contablemente el préstamo puede ser considerado como una inversión o un depósito, pero dada la naturaleza de la gobernanza del Banxico y su casi independencia política puede actuar sin trasparencia, ni rendición de cuentas.

Por otra parte, ante la tan proclamada naturaleza intocable de las reservas monetarias del Banxico, con el préstamo se rompe el tabú que en su manejo se había tejido. En este contexto, resurge la pregunta de esclarecer jurídica y financieramente a quién pertenecen las reservas del banco central de México, mismo que, enfrenta contablemente un capital negativo.

En tanto el FMI proclama una reforma para la Gobernanza Global, como medio para su legitimación y medio para enfrentar la crisis económica y financiera global, México como en casi todos los temas económicos y financieros marcha a contracorriente internacional. Ya vendrán tiempos en lo que se rindan cuentas por voluntad soberana o por que las circunstancias de crisis hagan que murallas se caigan, como bíblicamente aconteció en Jericó. 



2012/06/19

Argentina defiende ante G20 medidas a favor de crecimiento en época de crisis

México G20


La presidenta argentina, Cristina Fernández, defendió en la localidad mexicana de Los Cabos, que acoge la cumbre del G20, políticas “a favor del crecimiento y en contra del ajuste”, en tiempos de crisis como los actuales, explicó su canciller, Héctor Timerman.
En declaraciones a la prensa al término de los trabajos del primero de los dos días de cumbre, Timerman explicó que Fernández está a favor de “medidas proactivas, anticíclicas” en las discusiones mantenidas.

La presidenta de Argentina se entrevistó el lunes con su homóloga brasileña, Dilma Rousseff, por la mañana, y conversó con el mandatario ruso, Vladimir Putin, más tarde, durante el plenario.

“Seguramente quedaron en seguir hablando (con Putin) mañana (por hoy)”, sostuvo Timerman, quien confirmó otro encuentro bilateral más al término de los trabajos del G20 entre Fernández y el recién elegido presidente de Francia, Francois Hollande.
Con Rousseff, la gobernante argentina mantuvo una coincidencia total en cuanto a la necesidad de impulsar políticas de crecimiento frente a las de austeridad, detalló Timerman.

El titular de Exteriores argentino sostuvo que Argentina defiende que “es el Estado el que tiene que asumir sus compromisos, de crear demanda, trabajo, y estar al servicio del bienestar de las naciones” en un contexto de desaceleración económica como el actual.
Respecto a los trabajos y a la declaración final de la cumbre que se celebra en Los Cabos, Timerman adelantó que “no va a haber sorpresas” en la declaración final, y señaló que el texto en que se trabaja expondrá claramente la necesidad que hay de superar la crisis, “especialmente en la zona euro”.

Dicho documento también contendrá “un reconocimiento a los países emergentes que han hecho un gran esfuerzo en mantener la economía” en una coyuntura de crisis, agregó.
Timerman anticipó en que se insistirá en la necesidad de que las cuestiones laborales no dejen de ser abordadas en un foro como el G20, que reúne a las principales economías desarrolladas y emergentes del mundo, así como a algunos invitados, y a organismos internacionales diversos.

La cumbre del G20 concluirá mañana previsiblemente con la adopción de una declaración en la que llevan meses trabajando los representantes de los Estados miembros de este foro informal (“sherpas”), con especial énfasis en las medidas necesarias en asuntos financieros y para fomentar el crecimiento y el empleo.

http://www.infolatam.com