Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Ukraine. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Ukraine. Mostrar todas las entradas

2014/03/27

Ukraine to get $18 billion rescue from IMF

  @MarkThompsonCNN
ukraine imf

The International Monetary Fund has agreed to lend Ukraine up to $18 billion over the next two years as its new government tries to stave off economic collapse.

Kiev has been running dangerously low on cash to pay for imports and service its debts since the ousting of pro-Moscow former President Vitkor Yanukovych last month, which killed off a $15 billion financial lifeline from Russia.
With economic turmoil rising following Russia's annexation of Crimea, Ukraine was facing bankruptcy and a slump in output.
Foreign exchange reserves have been decimated by a sharp fall in exports and by attempts -- now abandoned -- to prop up the hrvynia currency. At the beginning of March, Ukraine had only enough cash to finance two months' worth of imports.
"The IMF package should be sufficient to prevent the country falling into a full-blown balance of payments crisis, in which the hrvynia would drop sharply and output would collapse," said William Jackson, emerging market economist at Capital Economics.
In return for the bailout, Ukraine will implement a program of unpopular reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy and creating the conditions for a return to sustained growth.
Central to the program are commitments by Ukraine to tackle corruption -- a major concern of international lenders -- and reforming the country's energy market, including the gradual withdrawal of subsidies on natural gas.
"Importantly, this will be accompanied by scaled up social protection to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable," the IMF said in a statement.
Speaking to lawmakers, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the reform program would include spending cuts that will cost 24,000 government jobs, higher rates of income tax, privatization and constitutional reform.
The economy would shrink by 3% this year, he forecast, if Ukraine enacted the reforms attached to the IMF package.
"If we do not, it is minus 10% GDP and default," he said.
Four million households would receive some form of government assistance, he added.
The IMF said the focus for this year would be on stabilizing Ukraine's financial position. In 2015-16, spending cuts will be made at a pace "commensurate with the speed of the economic recovery and protecting the vulnerable."
The IMF has been burned in Ukraine before. A previous program was suspended in 2011 after the government failed to meet deadlines to raise household energy prices.
Ukraine's allies in the West are trying to strike a balance -- insisting on measures to make the economy more competitive, while avoiding the kind of harsh austerity that could provoke a popular backlash.
With Russian troops massing on Ukraine borders, Kiev will want to avoid stoking discontent in eastern cities such as Luhansk and Donetsk, which have substantial Russian minorities.
"Years of mass unemployment in Donetsk is not what Europe needs to keep the situation calm," wrote Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding in a note.
Analysts estimate Ukraine needs $12 billion to $13 billion this year alone to pay for imports and service debt -- including a $1 billion bond falling due in June, and arrears onRussian gas imports.
The IMF loans, which need to be approved by the fund's board in April, could unlock financial help from other international organizations that was made conditional on an IMF deal, making for total support of $27 billion.
Will IMF bailout clean up Ukraine?
The EU has offered Ukraine financial assistance worth $15 billion over the next two years, in the form of loans, grants, investments and trade concessions. The U.S. has promised $1 billion in loan guarantees, and the World Bank is talking about backing infrastructure and social security projects worth $3 billion.
-- CNN's Victoria Butenko in Kiev and CNNMoney's Alanna Petroff contributed to this article. To top of page

2014/03/04

Why foreign CEOs should care about Ukraine

140303124011-ukraine-620xaEurope's second largest country is suffering immensely, but it's a key food producer, which is why it's critical to companies like Deere and Caterpillar -- and why China recently secured rights to use 7.4 million acres of its arable land.

By Geoff Colvin, senior editor-at-large
Ukraine is a sad country. That's not my opinion -- well, actually it is, but setting that aside for the moment, it's also a finding of the UN's most recent World Happiness Report, which combines massive quantities of research to rank 156 nations by happiness. Ukraine is No. 87, just a bit happier than Latvia and slightly more miserable than Ghana.
Such deep gloom is no surprise. In a ranking of 224 countries, Ukraine's birth rate is No. 202, while its death rate is No. 2 (behind only South Africa). People are dying almost twice as fast as they're being born. In theory a country can counter that population-draining effect by attracting immigrants, but Ukraine is doing the opposite: People are moving out faster than they're moving in. Thus the population is shrinking, while corruption, political turmoil, and instability have hammered the economy so badly that it's still smaller than it was when the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. If you lived there, you'd be unhappy too.
So why would a foreign CEO care about Ukraine? For a few reasons, of which the largest may well be food. Americans of a certain vintage learned in elementary school that Ukraine is "the breadbasket of the Soviet Union," and it's still a breadbasket. Grain is in Ukraine's soul; the country's flag, a band of blue over a band of gold, symbolizes a clear sky over a field of grain. Ukraine can't consume nearly as much food as it produces. As food becomes a more contentious global issue with the world's population growing richer and more numerous, sad, shrinking Ukraine becomes more important -- economically and geopolitically.
That's why Sam Allen, CEO of Deere (DE), and Doug Oberhelman and Ray Lane, the current and former CEOs of Caterpillar (CAT), have all told me how critical the country is to their strategies. It's also why those companies plus Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Cargill, DuPont (DD), Mondelez (MDLZ), Monsanto (MON), and other U.S. agribusiness companies have operations there.
Perhaps most important, it's why China last year negotiated an extraordinary 50-year deal to rent 5% of Ukraine -- 7.4 million acres, about the size of Massachusetts or Belgium. China consumes some 20% of the world's food, a share that is increasing fast, but it has only 9% of the world's arable land, a share that is declining as urbanization takes over more farmland. The country needs a piece of the breadbasket. China's official government news agency has published articles warning of threats to the country's "grain security."
Vladimir Putin is well aware that Russia and the West aren't the only players that want a degree of influence over Ukraine.
We'll see lots of political and military news from Ukraine in coming days, and almost none of it will mention the country's significance for the world's food supply. Let's remember that that issue is always lurking in the background.

2014/02/27

'Are We Going To Go To War With Russia Over Ukraine?'

By HENRY BLODGET AND MICHAEL KELLEY

With ousted Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych having fled to Moscow for protection, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warning Russia to stand down, and pro-Russian gunmen taking over Ukraine government buildings in its southern peninsula, we wondered whether the escalating Ukraine crisis might lead to a U.S. military conflict with Russia.
We asked geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group what is likely to happen.
Fortunately, Bremmer says there is a "near-zero" chance of a direct U.S. military conflict with Russia.
Instead, Bremmer says, a portion of Ukraine might secede and align with Russia, while the rest of the country will remain intact (and aligned with Europe). There might be local violence and verbal skirmishes along the way, but no military action between the U.S. and Russia. If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, Bremmer says, the U.S. will likely condemn the behavior but do nothing.
From Bremmer:
"If Ukraine pursues a Europe all-in strategy and Russians in Crimea secede, Putin could easily recognize them and provide 'support' to Russia's besieged compatriots. At which point the West protests loudly...and does very little...
NATO is setting redlines on Ukrainian sovereignty/territorial integrity that we aren't prepared to defend — and it's not useful to give the new Ukrainian government those expectations.
Crimea seceding is [not] Ukraine splitting in half. It's a Russian peninsula with a restive minority (Tatars) and a military base. Most of southeast Ukraine would stick with Kiev (though we could see violence in some of those cities).
[The] likelihood of a US direct military conflict with Russia is near zero. Like Georgia, if Russians decide they want to go all in, in their backyard, the US isn't about to fight for it."
The Kremlin is positioning itself to defend its interests in Crimea, which is the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority and home to Russia's Black Sea naval fleet.
About 150,000 troops are performing war games near Russia's border with Ukraine and its fighter jets are on alert. Russian troops are on the streets of Crimea's regional capital of Simferopol as the Russian flag flies above its parliament building.
Crimean politicians are talking separatism and denouncing the interim government in Kiev as illegitimate. Meanwhile, the new leaders in the capital are trying to figure out how to keep the country unified and solvent.
This map, which shows the common native languages in urban and rural councils as of 2001, illustrates Crimea's closeness to Russia. Blue is Ukrainian and red is Russian. 
Screen Shot 2014 02 27 at 9.31.23 AM
Wikimedia Commons



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/are-we-going-to-war-with-russia-over-ukraine-2014-2#ixzz2uXsFI8RQ