Solid iPhone 5 Sales In December Will Take Apple To $800

While the stock hasn’t performed all that well over the past few months, sales of Apple’s marquee product, the iPhone 5, have surged according to recent channel checks. Canaccord Genuity now estimates Apple will sell 47.5 million iPhones in December and that the stock will hit $800.

“Bolstered by the iPhone 5, we believe Apple’s industry-leading software ecosystem and integrated software experience will lead a strong multi-year cycle,” explained Michael Walkley, Canaccord’s tech analyst.

Channel checks performed in November showed strong sales of iPhone 5 at AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint stores, and throughout international markets.  Importantly, Canaccord’s analysts noted dramatically improved supply, with pretty much all stores offering all different versions of the iPhone 5.

Consumers are so into Apple’s iPhones that sales of the legacy iPhone 4 and the 4S models were strong through November, with the iPhone 4 actually sold out at many stores after Black Friday.

Apple also recently announced the iPhone 5 will be available in more than 50 new countries in December, taking their carrier count to 240, according to Cannacord.  Among those new markets will be China, where the company founded by Steve Jobs will arrive by December 7.

Walkley has revised his estimates of iPhone sales and now expects 47.5 million units in December, up from 45 million previously.  He’s also lowered his March quarter estimate to 46 million units, from 47.5 million, as the earlier entry into China will pull sales to December.  Cannacord has an $800 price target on the stock.

Given the iPhone is Apple’s highest-margin hardware product, December’s solid sales performance will lead to a gross margin closer to 38.7%, according to Walkley, compared to Apple’s guidance of 36%.

While there’s much talk of Samsung putting pressure on Apple and the growth of Android products, the maker of the iPhone seems to be showing no signs of slowing down.  Shares in Apple have fallen substantially since peaking above $705 in mid-September.  If Walkley’s iPhone sales forecast proves correct, Apple could well be on its way to new highs.

www.forbes.com

How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?

The forecasts range from 21 million to 32.3 million. Median estimate: 27 million.

 How well Wall Street receives Apple's (AAPL) quarterly earnings these days depends almost entirely on the iPhone.

In a good quarter -- like fiscal Q2 2012, when Apple sold 35 million iPhones -- the device will account for nearly 60% of the company's total revenue. In a bad quarter -- like Q3, when the 16.2 million units Apple sold accounted for 46% of its revenue -- the iPhone will drag the company and its stock price down with it.

Estimating iPhone sales for Q4 2012 -- the quarter that ended Sept. 29 -- is particularly tricky. For the first 10 weeks, unit sales were depressed by customers holding out for the new phone they kept reading about. For the last two weeks, the company sold iPhone 5s as fast as it could make them.

How fast that was, and how slow sales were before the iPhone 5's release, is anybody's guess.

The 60 estimates that have come in so far from our pool of Apple analysts -- 30 professionals and  30 independents -- were all over the lot. In fact, it was hard to distinguish the consensus among the more conservative pros from the congenitally bullish indies.

The low estimate this quarter, 21 million, was submitted by an independent -- Shafiq Shamji of the Braeburn Group. And before he lowered his forecast to 26.5 million on Monday, William Blair's Anil Doradla was sitting on a Street-and-independent high estimate of 33 million.

The average among both groups is 26.4; the median 27 million.

We'll find out whose numbers are closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Thursday, Oct. 25.

Below: The analysts' individual estimates, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

Posted in: Apple, Earnings smack down, iPhone 5, Mobile